Bernd Wiesberger, Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood are all right in the hunt to be crowned Europe’s No 1 at the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai on Sunday.
After 54 holes at Jumeirah Golf Estates the maths still says it’s a five horse race but the leaderboard suggests the Harry Vardon trophy will be lifted by either Jon Rahm, Bernd Wiesberger or Tommy Fleetwood.
Let’s take a look at the players in the hunt.
Jon Rahm
Started the week third on the Race to Race to Dubai Rankings – Provisionally first
Race to Dubai win probability – 72.3%
The Spaniard became the first player to win three Rolex Series titles at the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open and he also became a two time winner of his national championship at the Mutuactivos Open de España this season. Those wins put him in with a chance of being Europe’s best and while he briefly topped the rankings on day one, it was on moving day where he came to life. A birdie at the first put him solo second for the week and into first but when Rory McIlroy joined him at 11 under, Rahm was chasing again. Rahm birdied the seventh to get back on top but fell again with a bogey on the eighth, before a poor run from Wiesberger on the back nine put him back in the ascendancy. The 25-year-old heads into the final round in a share of the lead.
Rahm will win the Race to Dubai if:
· He wins the DP World Tour Championship and Wiesberger finishes lower than solo second.
· He finishes solo second, with Wiesberger finishing worse than tied fifth place with one other, and neither Fleetwood, Shane Lowry or Matthew Fitzpatrick winning the event.
· He finishes tied second with one other, with Wiesberger finishing worse than solo 21st, and neither Fleetwood, Lowry or Fitzpatrick winning the event.
Bernd Wiesberger
Started the week first on the Race to Race to Dubai Rankings – Provisionally second
Race to Dubai win probability – 8.7%
Regardless of the outcome on Sunday, Wiesberger will have had the finest season of his career. After missing seven months of last season with a wrist injury, he returned to win the Made in Denmark presented by FREJA and become a two time Rolex Series champion at the Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open and Italian Open. That meant he was the man to enter this week with his fate in his own hands and that is still the case. He slipped behind Fleetwood in the Race to Dubai Rankings Presented by Rolex heading into the weekend but three birdies in his first eight holes on Saturday kept him right in the mix. He then dropped three shots in four holes from the ninth in a 73 and Rahm was the man to catch. Wiesberger heads into Sunday in a five way tie for 24th – 13 shots off the lead.
Wiesberger will win the Race to Dubai if:
· He wins the DP World Tour Championship, or if he finishes in outright second.
Tommy Fleetwood
Started the week second on the Race to Race to Dubai – Provisionally third
Race to Dubai win probability – 18.9%
A picture of consistency, Fleetwood arrived at last week’s Nedbank Golf Challenge hosted by Gary Player off the back of 40 consecutive made cuts worldwide but without a victory in 22 months. He ended that drought as he lifted the trophy in South Africa and made himself Wiesberger’s closest challenger with 72 holes to go. He held the top spot in the Rankings during round one and held it at the end of round two but Rahm’s opening birdie on Saturday knocked him down and he could not get back to the top after a 70 that left him four shots behind joint leader Rahm.
Fleetwood can win the Race to Dubai, if:
· He wins this week and Wiesberger finishes lower than solo second.
· He finishes solo second, with Wiesberger finishing lower than tied third place with two others, and neither Rahm or Lowry winning the event.
· He finishes tied second with one other, with Wiesberger finishing lower than tied seventh place with one other, and neither Rahm, Lowry or Fitzpatrick winning the event.
· He finishes tied second with two others, with Wiesberger finishing lower than solo 15th place, and neither Rahm, Lowry or Fitzpatrick winning the event.
· He finishes tied second with three others, with Wiesberger finishing lower than solo 42nd place, and neither Rahm, Lowry or Fitzpatrick winning the event.
